Doug Vining Accelerating the take off

What most people don't realise is that air traffic is growing exponentially, at an accelerating rate, globally. This is driven partly by increased efficiency due to tech, as well as increased affluence, especially in places like India and China, the biggest markets for future travel. It's one of the paradoxes of efficiency, called Jevson's paradox, I think, that as things become more efficient, they cost less, so we consume more of them in total. Jet engines, or the passenger-mile capabilities of jet airliners, are hugely more efficient than they were a couple of decades ago, and the latest versions, coupled with composite airframe technology pioneered by the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, make air travel more cost effective than ever, especially in fuel terms. Which means that more people can afford to fly more often, resulting in rapidly increasing demand for planes and jet fuel. Expect the total number of passengers carried to rise by 70% in the next ten years, then almost double in the decade following. That's ...
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Accelerating the take off") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=2e5bbded-246d-46c1-b70c-f6dcbc719e42
Posted: 18 October 2018 at 18:20
Comments by users of MindBullets are those of the authors and are not necessarily shared, endorsed and/or warranted by FutureWorld. All MindBullet content is Copyright FutureWorld International © 2018. All Rights Reserved.