Doug Vining Present future for Bitcoin

Don't you love the way our MindBullets seem to have brilliant timing? Bitcoin comes under pressure at the same time we publish a scenario for its ultimate collapse!

What I want to know is, how do I get hold of some of those Bitcoin metal coins? Who sells them? I'm convinced they will become great collectors items in the future. Maybe they are 3D printed!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Present future for Bitcoin") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=2cec9084-f6fa-43e8-9399-b87d917e517f
Posted: 3 October 2013 at 19:34

Doug Vining Brutal truth for Bitcoin

Bitcoin may not be a Ponzi scheme, but it will never be a currency. That's because a currency exists to facilitate transactions, not just be hoarded as an asset. So Bitcoin might be a useful store of value, or a tradable commodity, like gold, but it won't become a currency, unless its whole mode of operation changes, and it becomes something other than what it is now. This article from the Atlantic explains that quite well, though the comments to the article show there is a lot of confusion about what constitutes a currency in today's world!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Brutal truth for Bitcoin") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=e9fb953b-6b70-4ab8-bc6c-e2e23b0e549d
Posted: 17 December 2013 at 09:34

Neil Jacobsohn Beyond Bitcoin

There's huge debate - and huge disagreement - in the financial community over whether Bitcoin has a future. As this article argues, the issue is not Bitcoin, but the concept of cryptocurrencies and their potential usefulness. Our MindBullet alongside suggested that the Bitcoin bubble may indeed burst - and headlines over the last few weeks have shown the currency to be under pressure. The challenge is to look beyond Bitcoin.
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Posted: 26 February 2014 at 11:32

Doug Vining Bitcoin, what are you?

Bitcoin's wild ride isn't over yet. But as we said before, it won't be a currency unless it changes in radical ways. Goldman Sachs seems to agree.

On the other hand, maybe Bitcoin is one of those things we don't understand enough yet. Perhaps it's the precursor to a new digital financial model that breaks the bonds with the established paradigm and ushers in a new era of 'money' as a concept that defies current definition.

For now, I don't see a long term future for Bitcoin. But there's something happenin' and what it is, ain't exactly clear!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Bitcoin, what are you?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=dc4da597-2f4b-4963-bcba-2dbc11c22229
Posted: 12 March 2014 at 20:50

Doug Vining Bitcoin Central

Here's an alternate future for Bitcoin, and it reads a bit like a MindBullet, set in 2024. I love the way Thomas Frey has brought the internet of things and a futuristic gadget into his scenario, but on the more serious side, I think they would call it something other than a bank. Bitcoin Clearing Centre perhaps?

One thing is for sure, even if the bubble bursts, the idea of cryptocurrencies will survive and morph into a disruptive agent on the global financial scene. I'm not sure that everyone would agree with Thomas when he says:

"Declaring war against current banking systems is in no one’s best interest."
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Posted: 20 August 2014 at 12:40

Doug Vining Bitcoin will change the world

Some may say it already has. In this excellent opinion piece, Ivo Vegter illuminates the way the blockchain technology behind Bitcoin is the truly revolutionary idea, with the potential to fundamentally alter the way the world does business.

"When people are able to circumvent the middlemen like this, they will. There is little that governments, central banks, or the financial industry can realistically do about it if smart contracts based on crypto-currencies become widespread and easily accessible. It gives those who distrust their government – and these days, most of us have reasons to do so – the means to free themselves. The same is true for people who don’t trust, or can’t afford, traditional banks."

For me, this is the important lesson. It matters not if Bitcoin succeeds or fails. The blockchain is the Black Swan that could free business and citizens from centralised control, bureaucracy and costly intermediaries.
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Posted: 18 November 2014 at 08:36

Doug Vining Digital currency deluge

Today we read that Citibank is developing its own digital currency. We still don't know how Bitcoin will pan out, if it will be a bubble or something lasting. But blockchain technology is definitely here to stay. As we've pointed out before, it can be used for many things, beyond crypto currencies.

I still think there's an opportunity for a government, perhaps China, to launch a global digital currency that minimises cross-border payment costs and forex problems.
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Posted: 7 July 2015 at 14:23

Doug Vining Bitcoin's latent defect

It seems that Bitcoin has a looming technical issue, which could see it become the victim of its own success. As the volume of transactions globally increases, so the time taken to clear transactions will increase and become unworkable.

That reminds me of the saturation effect that kills a Ponzi scheme. Just saying. Perhaps blockchain technology will find a better life after Bitcoin?
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Posted: 1 September 2015 at 13:18

Doug Vining Bitcoin in a death spiral

And so Bitcoin enters a declining phase, for many reasons. We've said all along that we were wary of Bitcoin's future, but more recently we've been much more excited by the potential for blockchain technology to re-invent financial and contractual processes.

Perhaps our MindBullet from the past was pretty close to the mark?
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Bitcoin in a death spiral") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=a5358837-b247-45c4-84a1-615197246903
Posted: 15 January 2016 at 13:44

Doug Vining Has the bubble burst?

In 2013 we speculated that, ultimately, bitcoin would collapse due to the large number of alternative or clone coins saturating the market. We still believe that blockchain technology is disruptive, and will change the way fintech and contracts work, but the essential problem with bitcoin is it's based on scarcity, and in the digital world there's massive abundance, of everything. Digital copies trend towards zero marginal cost.

Way back in 2013 we also highlighted the fact that mining bitcoins is not free - you have to pay for the electricity. Once a mining operation consumes more power dollars than it receives for unlocking a new coin, the whole rationale for mining comes to an end, and if those purpose-built machines are turned off, will the blockchain network continue to validate transactions? And if it takes forever to confirm a bitcoin transaction, will bitcoin be worth anything at all?
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Posted: 6 February 2018 at 12:39

Doug Vining Bitcoin getting the boot from Google

Online advertising is being self-regulated, probably to avoid it being regulated by government. Google sees to be taking the step to prevent risky (ad)ventures like spread betting, and is including cryptocurrencies and forex trading in that group.
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Posted: 14 March 2018 at 14:23
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