Doug Vining Balancing the scales

I was alerted to this trend by Adrian Saville. For the first time, GDP contribution from the rest of the world exceeds that of the advanced economies.

This clearly illustrates the shift in geopolitical power away from the Old World and towards the Dynamic Markets. What I find particularly interesting is the fact that the trends were basically flat for decades, and began to converge about ten years ago. As we say in the Naked Leadership theme, we are living in the "world after midnight" and it's already a decade old!

Adrian feels this must have political and even military consequences for the future.

A FuturesForum post (titled: "Balancing the scales") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=2d11bf21-ba58-49b4-b740-d1380ec8cbb2
Posted: 19 April 2013 at 08:54

Doug Vining Stimulus or austerity?

Europe embraced austerity while other countries, notably the US, opted for stimulus to pull them out of the recession. Now there is mounting evidence that austerity has failed to do the job.

This is indicative of the thinking that says the future is a matter of choices. But perhaps, given the situation in Greece and elsewhere, there was little choice but to insist on austerity, as the poor choices (bad policies) had already been made preceding the crisis.

Thanks to Gerd Leonhard for flagging this piece.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Stimulus or austerity?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=93d4268d-1daa-4a8d-88a7-bca4364d586a
Posted: 27 April 2013 at 17:07

Doug Vining Mini-boom begins

In line with our Timeline for the scenario for global growth that is described in this MindBullet, we would expect some signs of a global 'mini-boom' to start soon.

This could be one of those weak signals that gives us an early warning that that is precisely what is going to happen. If it does, will it peak in 2016 or sooner? Or will rising demand for energy cause it to falter?
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Mini-boom begins") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=da1d4c21-b6d9-4450-a108-140ebddc50fd
Posted: 8 May 2013 at 15:29

Wolfgang Grulke Is technology destroying jobs and the economy?

This article featuring FutureWorld associate Erik Brynjolfsson’s thinking is really about technological advances curtailing economic growth - read on!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Is technology destroying jobs and the economy?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=b2cf1968-5ce0-4eb4-bed1-f75e88b4ed71
Posted: 10 July 2013 at 14:54

Doug Vining Predicting the future of the world

Of course you can't, and economists agree. But we can develop a picture for certain inexorable trends, like changing demographics in different countries, what their response might be, and how that will (probably) affect the overall future of the global economy.

This panel discussion at Columbia University is available on YouTube, and makes for interesting viewing, even though it is more than an hour long: Predicting the Future of the World Economy

Of particular interest is the theme of the middle income trap, which we reflected in this MindBullet as a "midlife crisis", and the importance of currencies and financial shocks. In the longer term, the view seems optimistic, possibly even bullish for the major economies (US and China) and high-growth regions like Africa. But there will be crises along the way.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Predicting the future of the world") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=3b8ee552-16c8-4e55-b5f0-035301dbc93b
Posted: 25 February 2014 at 11:37

Doug Vining NASA says we're doomed

Will our technology-based civilization collapse in the coming decades? A new study funded by NASA seems to suggest it's likely. Certainly many advocates of "Limits to Growth" and projections of global population exceeding 10 billion would agree. But here's the thing. The future doesn't necessarily reflect past cycles, and globalisation makes comparisons with previous advanced civilizations irrelevant.

I'm prepared to argue that the scenario we depict in this MindBullet is a better reflection of the future of our civilization in the coming decades - not perfect, but definitely no collapse.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "NASA says we're doomed") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=1700b4d0-6984-4e03-8998-f0342524d29e
Posted: 20 March 2014 at 16:19

Doug Vining Limits to growth exist in the mind

"Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon." I don't think so.

As we wrote in our MindBullet STOP THE WORLD, WE'RE HAVING A MIDLIFE CRISIS, the hypothesis around global collapse usually extrapolates current trends into the future, and forgets to consider that in the future, everything will be different, VERY different.

Having read the accompanying article, I don't believe the data 'vindicates' the predictions of collapse. There are too many 'coulds' and 'mays' in the deductions, and no allowance for ingenuity, inventiveness and sheer random serendipity which as a species we are so good at exploiting in pursuit of our survival, and in our quest for a better future. Which is what most people want, given the opportunity.

All things remaining the same, the world may collapse - but all things never remain the same. Change is guaranteed, and I believe, wrongly or rightly, that change will triumph. Malthus was wrong, the Club of Rome was wrong, and I think Turner and Alexander will be proven inaccurate in the future.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Limits to growth exist in the mind") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=f097a012-488b-4d9f-a454-c1b10792fdf0
Posted: 2 September 2014 at 20:09

Doug Vining Humans versus artificials

In this Backchannel article, the author considers three 'forces of the future' and comes up with three possible scenarios for 2050. Of the three forces, the impact of AI and robotics, or 'artificials' as Stowe Boyd refers to non-human workers and actors, seems to have the most influence.

In our MindBullet published two years ago, we looked at six forces shaping the future, and presented a scenario matrix for 2040. I think that, in either case, it's how we react and adapt to these forces that determine the outcome, and the future is likely to be a blend of these ideas, rather than a unique scenario.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Humans versus artificials") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=868f5634-ae5d-4a63-8719-83bb7ed3969d
Posted: 8 July 2015 at 09:47

Doug Vining The future of work and investment

"Demographics, automation and inequality have the potential to dramatically reshape our world in the 2020s and beyond. Our analysis shows that the collision of these forces could trigger economic disruption far greater than we have experienced over the past 60 years. The aim of this report by Bain's Macro Trends Group is to detail how the impact of aging populations, the adoption of new automation technologies and rising inequality will likely combine to give rise to new business risks and opportunities. These gathering forces already pose challenges for businesses and investors. In the next decade, they will combine to create an economic climate of increasing extremes but may also trigger a decade-plus investment boom."
A FuturesForum post (titled: "The future of work and investment") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=0a279fb0-7a33-4325-be23-dc2bfc7cc1e3
Posted: 13 August 2018 at 09:57

Doug Vining The future of work and investment

Re-reading the MindBullet attached to this post reminds me that there are many forces at work, shaping the future, and the six we identified might be powerful, but can still be heavily distorted by Trumpism and anti-globalization sentiments. Having said that, there was recognition for the fact that a rise in protectionism could push the scenario to the negative side. It's also more or less impossible, in my mind, to imagine scenarios for 2050 or later - so much depends on how things pan out in the next decade or two.
Posted: 13 August 2018 at 10:17

Doug Vining Middle class or middle aged?



A FuturesForum post (titled: "Middle class or middle aged?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=c9fc0ea9-ddfb-46b4-ab27-eb8fe0977d11
Posted: 1 October 2018 at 10:02
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