Doug Vining Oil's uncertain future

This blog by Kevin Bullis in Technology Review lends support to the scenario featured in today's MindBullet. What strikes me as particularly important is the uncertainty surrounding the success of new oil production methods. Everything is connected, but the future scenario is unpredictable.

Will the oil price fall, and by how much? A 'low' price of $70 per barrel will keep unconventional methods in business, but also ensure that the OPEC nations remain wealthy. A collapse of the oil price to $35 would see many traditional exporters lose their profitable petro revenues, which help to maintain political stability in non-democracies. Perhaps only Saudi Arabia would be able to continue profitable production below $35, leading to all sorts of potential upsets, like foreigners being thrown out of Arab countries to make room for local labour. As wealth evaporates, a revolt by the people - a Second Arab Spring - is highly likely.

On the other hand, energy technology innovation has been spurred by the high oil price, the looming fear of 'peak oil' and the desire to cash in on renewable energy opportunities. The new oil abundance featured in these discussions, particularly for the United States, throws all these factors into disarray. ...
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Oil's uncertain future") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=6b6c301a-09ac-4d31-8559-8363faa64067
Posted: 5 July 2012 at 09:36

Doug Vining Life's a gas - if you've got it

As far back as 2005, I remember being quite convinced that natural gas was going to be the big energy Black Swan in the future, not a nuclear renaissance. Bear in mind that a decade ago, Russia flared off most of its gas as a 'waste product' from oil wells. It was only when demand picked up, and the value of that gas skyrocketed, that Russia became a big player, exporting gas to Europe, including the UK.

Arab states like Qatar were also sitting on massive gas fields, and although shale gas reserves were known about, they were considered of little value because of the difficulty in getting them into production.

Well, fracking has changed all that, and I remain expectant for GTL (gas to liquid) technology to seriously take off, now that the US is "awash in natural gas" and new gas finds off Namibia, Kenya and Brazil, to name a few, are being announced with increasing frequency. Oh, and China has plenty of shale gas too!

So if nuclear falters while gas becomes the darling of the energy scene, I for one will be totally unsurprised...
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Life's a gas - if you've got it") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=6474d84e-5c06-4d4f-8a18-dae75e0cc54d
Posted: 12 August 2012 at 10:48

Doug Vining California's next 'gold rush'

It quite ironic that California, which enjoys a position of leadership in the US economy, and is the heart of American solar power and green politics, is also set to become the nation's largest oil-producing state. If this scenario plays out as expected, California will experience a new oil boom to rival the gold rush days of old.

With Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the western trade ports, and now a new oil boom, California will undoubtedly lead the economic upswing in the United States. The Sunshine State also leads in distributed solar power such as Solar City and is home to the Tesla Motors plant. Are we going to see a gigantic battle between the green tech lobbyists and the oil men, or is everyone just going to revel in the boom?
A FuturesForum post (titled: "California's next 'gold rush'") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=08cf0c0f-3900-4f20-b3d1-9b3ccfff6b37
Posted: 12 February 2013 at 09:54

Neil Jacobsohn More oil than we thought

Isn't it interesting how the many predictions that we are running out of resources seem to be overturned again and again? But that doesn't mean we shouldn't use energy more intelligently. Surely that's simple business sense?
A FuturesForum post (titled: "More oil than we thought") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=31c87588-efae-40f2-9285-0599d49c1c65
Posted: 6 May 2013 at 14:43

Doug Vining Awash with oil and gas

Some analysts say that the US will become energy independent in a matter of years. Others argue that the shale oil and gas bonanza is going to dry up pretty quickly, and America will NEVER be independent from oil imports.

The future of oil and gas is uncertain, but this new report indicates that it might not be just the Americas that benefit from the new resources. Aside from Argentina, which has probably the biggest shale gas reserves of all, I was surprised to see South Africa and France both on the map, two countries which don't have a history of oil and gas production.

Like it or not, the concept of peak oil is once again receding into mythology, as technology and new information confounds the best theories. My own theory is that we will develop economic energy alternatives from surprising sources, long before we run out of fossil fuels.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Awash with oil and gas") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=5bbf1432-cc54-4d65-978d-77329be976bc
Posted: 11 June 2013 at 17:29

Doug Vining Topping up the world's oil

More than a year ago, we suggested that the US could become the major oil producer, as a result of fracking technology unlocking vast quantities of shale oil.

It seems like we were right on the money. In 2013 US production is expected to exceed everyone else!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Topping up the world's oil") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=fbe83496-a6e1-4526-95f3-64b284cbb46a
Posted: 9 October 2013 at 14:07

Doug Vining Exporting US oil

The first steps towards America becoming an oil exporter have been taken. Will US companies eventually have enough shale oil to export crude? Will they be allowed to?

Our MindBullet published two years ago raised this scenario.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Exporting US oil") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=373ba077-8a1b-447f-b226-aa9d5da27d22
Posted: 25 June 2014 at 10:58

Doug Vining Gas power in Africa

In Rwanda they are finally getting electric power from gas, and they don't even have to go to the trouble of fracking. The gas is simply extracted from the deep waters of Lake Kivu, where it occurs naturally. Although this is a relatively small scale plant, it's the first of its type in the world, and could be expanded to provide significant power in a region that is critically under-served. Added to the significant finds of gas in the East Africa region, and the potential for solar power to leapfrog 'old energy' we should see a massive shift away from 'darkest Africa' to rapid electrification in the future. That will change Africa like nothing before!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Gas power in Africa") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=b0ee3659-343d-4239-9b54-13670d695668
Posted: 17 May 2016 at 10:52

Doug Vining America's new oil for export

Six years ago we speculated that new technology, principally fracking, would enable the United States to become a net exporter of oil. This has now become a reality, as for the first time in 75 years the US exports more petro products than it imports. Plus a further announcement of the "largest ever continuous resource" puts America on a firm footing to expand its oil and gas exports.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "America's new oil for export") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=0adf89f2-8b38-4a32-82bb-5ce0e1771c57
Posted: 10 December 2018 at 13:52

Doug Vining A glut of US oil in six years

It seems that our #MindBullet of six years ago is in danger of becoming reality in the next six years. The International Energy Agency thinks US oil output by then will surpass that of Russia and Saudi combined! That is bound to shake up markets dramatically, particularly if oil consumption in the US also declines.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "A glut of US oil in six years") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=cba05071-4e96-42ad-ba71-76bf63a16979
Posted: 24 December 2018 at 14:40
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