The MENA scanario in the MB has a number of added value consequences
1. the opportunity cost of renewable enrgy just became more affordable
2. the increased gold price provides a bigger attraction to investors than just US bonds and helps keep both supply and demand inflation in check
3. MENA has a more sustainable future in the medium term once the short term leadership is resolved
4. religious extremists are likely to ne far more preoccupied in their own back yard rather than be dogmaiccally focussed on the destruction of the US in particular and the West in general

So overall the "MENA situation" whilst it does pose ST risks and costs, does unlock MT and LT benefits.
Jean-Marie in anon MENA country for now!!
Posted: 24 February 2011 at 06:33

Doug Vining Golden opportunity for some

This scenario could give a big boost to Russia - they have gold, oil and gas. On the other hand, I would expect a race to develop synfuels from bacteria or algae by Dr Craig Venter, and Sasol would be smiling!

Demand for gasoline cars would deflate rapidly. I wonder where those million cars made in China are going to find a market, to say nothing of new woes for Ford and GM.
Posted: 24 February 2011 at 07:33

Max Burger Re: OIL @ $200 - GOLD @ $2000

Now you also have to send a bullet saying the opposite since it could be for the middle east what the fall of the berlin wall was for Europe and Russia.
Posted: 24 February 2011 at 17:16

Wolfgang Grulke RE: Re: OIL @ $200 - GOLD @ $2000

That's an excellent observation and a fabulous opportunity for some MENA politicians with vision who can galvanise the population around this kind of 'Berlin dream' - "The shackles are off, we're free to thrive, we're free to do anything we want!"
Posted: 24 February 2011 at 18:37

Wolfgang Grulke A harsh assessment of the current reality!

"...there is a determined attempt to restore the economic model so comprehensively discredited in the crash of 2008. But the evidence is piling up that the full impact of the crisis is only starting to make itself felt – and that both the economy and politics will be transformed before it has run its course.

"...the upheaval has spread across the Gulf kingdoms, oil prices have started to spike. If the revolution reaches the main oil producing states, the impact of sharply higher prices on global recovery is likely to be dramatic – a boomerang effect of the original crisis, which would further squeeze growth and fuel inflation."

Read more in this article by Seumas Milne.
Posted: 10 March 2011 at 10:51
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