Doug Vining Sea routes open for business

As this MindBullet speculated, the availability of the Northwest passage on a regular basis could have a big impact on the shipping industry.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Sea routes open for business") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=cf3054fb-f8ba-4084-9749-c0012a6074e8
Posted: 29 August 2011 at 10:35

Doug Vining Northeast or Northwest, watch out for ice

This article echoes our MindBullet about new sea routes opening up as a result of global warming, but there is plenty of confusion in the media.

The article refers to COSCO using the Northeast passage for the first time, although this route has been used since 2009. However, the subhead refers to the Northwest route around Canada, which was the actual premise of the MindBullet below. As far as I know, the Northwest passage has never been used for commercial shipping, and braving the Arctic sea ice north of Russia is hardly ground breaking in modern times.

But there are a couple of other factors to consider. The year of minimum summer sea ice in the Arctic was actually 2012, and this year, 2013, is quite bad for shipping according to recent sea captains' reports. Could it be that the ice is making a comeback, and that we will never see the Northwest passage 'open for business'?

Looking at the most recent plots for Arctic sea ice, and the flat trend for global temperatures, I think it's highly likely that the window of opportunity for using the Northeast passage for commercial shipping is fast closing.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Northeast or Northwest, watch out for ice") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=3ec9e557-8683-442d-b373-e22f9bf8b740
Posted: 18 August 2013 at 19:41
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