Doug Vining Alternative scenarios

All of the scenarios presented in the Scenario Matrix are plausible. Personally I think the pace of innovation in alternative energy will be a major determinant. The Economist sums it up nicely: "These countries [emerging economies], and others like them, are prepared to look beyond fossil fuels. They will get their energy where they can. So if renewables and other alternatives can compete on cost, the poor and the rich world alike will adopt them. That, however, requires innovation."
Posted: 13 August 2008 at 00:00

John Menasce Energy Glut triggers crash

A strategic issue that you have identified in the longer term is that all businesses are cyclical and how long will the energy business cycle last- this has a major effect on power utility capital projects business models as they need to plan for 40 + years of operation and 5 to 10 years to design and build power plants and possibly another 15 years for decomissioning. This long term capital model applies whether the plant is thermal, nuclear or renewable. If such a crash could occur it means that the utilities economic model would need drastic change and that ROCE would be short term as in other businesses- it means that that the c/kWh which is THE primary driver for economical electricity technology,[unless global environmental legislation changes] could rise dramatically.
Posted: 14 August 2008 at 13:08

Doug Vining U.S. Wind Power Could Hit 150 Gigawatts by 2020

A report from Emerging Energy Research, a cleantech consulting firm, points out that the U.S. is now the world's fastest growing market for wind power. Last year 5 gigawatts of wind power were installed, and 2008 will break the record again with 8 new gigawatts under construction. The U.S. will shortly be the world's largest producer of wind energy, surpassing Germany's 22 gigawatts.
Posted: 18 August 2008 at 07:51

Anton Musgrave Energy reaches a tipping point...and the future will never be the same

Quietly and without fanfare, the world's production of renewable energy now surpasses all the new energy brought online by gas, Coal and other fossil fuels in the past year. This is the moment we have long suggested cold happen but the carbon energy lobby always said would never happen as renewables could not offer big enough base load generation. With the increasing efficiencies of renewables and new smart micro-grid capabilities enjoying Moores law type improvement, the energy world has changed. many old players will be left wondering what happened.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Energy reaches a tipping point...and the future will never be the same") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here:
Posted: 16 April 2015 at 11:37
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