Brett Dawson Structural transport breakpoint

The shift to China as low cost manufacturing centre is probably applicable to all industries, so wake-up calls are due in other areas of excellence in the EU & USA. Most notably the dominance of Boeing & Airbus in the air - I expect to see a surprise here too within the next 5-10 years. What is even more interesting is the potential for structure changes in the transport industry. With escallating fuel prices, the down-hill ramp on the oil peak curve and significant and unsustainable transport demand in China & India chances are good that mass transport modes of travel will become much bigger than the current decentralised approach of individual vehicles. I expect to see modified versions of trains & trams, with a new philosophy in hub-to-hub infrastructure design and local "low-tech" hub distributon systems (riksaws, bicycles, walkways and possibly even animals - horses & carts). With increased congestion and difficulies to open dedicated land for transport "pipelines" I also see a good chance for airships / blimps to be used, especially considering they don't need energy or power to keep them in the air & are therefor more efficient. With declining populations the EU & USA may not need to consider this route, but if they do early movers may gain a competitive advantage over China & India in the short to medium term.
Posted: 6 October 2005 at 13:22

Wolfgang Grulke RE: Structural transport breakpoint

Have you read the MindBullet titled: Hertz voted #1 airline?
Posted: 7 October 2005 at 12:26

Yusuf Dindar Implictions for South Africa

It would be interesting to view how SA is gearing up against other competior countries like China,Brzil and Turkey to take advantage of this move of VW manufacturing out of its traditional German stable!
Posted: 18 May 2006 at 10:02

Doug Vining Has Europe's car industry peaked?

Reading this piece from the Economist, one can't help thinking that the Paris auto show with it's glitzy electric cars is a bit of a last gasp attempt to breathe life back into a declining business.

As we wrote in this MindBullet from way back, the future for Volkswagen and other European manufacturers lies elsewhere, and Volkswagen will be the first to agree! They are pinning their hopes on China.
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Has Europe's car industry peaked?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=f4f9c012-ac9c-4410-a061-7c1fd2c5d0cf
Posted: 3 October 2012 at 17:21
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