Doug Vining What happens if oil output 'peaks'?

Posted: 21 July 2005 at 10:24

Doug Vining Highest oil prices yet

In June 2005 the oil price broke above $60 for the first time. This makes this scenario even more topical and likely.
Posted: 21 July 2005 at 10:44

Doug Vining China world's third-largest ethanol fuel producer

"With current technology, people start breaking even making ethanol at around $40 a barrel of oil," said the head of LME's Starch & Sweetener Research, who was in China last week.

Earlier this month, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top planner, said on its Web site (www.ndrc.gov.cn.) that biofuels should replace about 2 million tonnes of crude oil by 2010 and 10 million tonnes by 2020.
Posted: 2 May 2006 at 12:07

Doug Vining BP Commits $500 Million to Support Biofuels

BP announced on June 14th 2006 that it plans to spend $500 million over the next ten years to establish a biosciences research laboratory dedicated to energy technologies.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/news_detail.html?news_id=10081
Posted: 6 July 2006 at 18:40

Doug Vining BP spill reveals new bacteria

In this MindBullet we 'predicted' the emergence of a new oil-eating bacteria species by 2013. It seems that it has happened this year, which could lead to 'Greentide' being developed even sooner.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7964175/Microbe-eating-spilled-oil-in-Gulf-of-Mexico.html
Note however, that the scenario above continues to develop until 'Greentide' threatens oil reserves!
Posted: 26 August 2010 at 13:03

Doug Vining Black Swans hatching?

I've written several times over the years about the fallacy of the 'peak oil' scenario. The point is, we cannot predict what unexpected events or discoveries will occur between the present and a future where oil production is constrained.

One of my favorite scenarios for solutions to the energy and fossil fuel crisis involves the use of genetically engineered bacteria to consume waste products and produce a diesel fuel equivalent. Another is the potential for 'biological fuel cells' to use microorganisms to create electricity directly from sewage or sea water.

Now Joule Unlimited has obtained a patent for a modified bacteria that consumes carbon dioxide and excretes diesel. A nifty trick if you can do it, without any glucose or cellulose feedstock! What's more, they claim to have a 'library' of bacteria for different fuels; gasoline, jet fuel and so on.

Will this prove to be an illusion that doesn't survive the test of commercial application, or is this one of those black swans hatching? The oil and energy industry will certainly be turned upside down if this project succeeds!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Black Swans hatching?") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=665e3f9f-3b5b-49fd-9827-f87ccd86d983
Posted: 24 January 2011 at 10:04

Doug Vining Black Swans hatching?

Here's a link to a New Scientist article on this biofuel company based in Massachusetts, which provides more details about the company's plans for commercial production. It's still too early to tell, but this is starting to look promising.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21028136.200-renewable-oil-ancient-bacteria-could-fuel-modern-life.html
Posted: 19 May 2011 at 15:16
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