Doug Vining Not sure about the 'bounce'

I thought the bounce was the slight uptick following the free fall of a dead stock before the flatline is resumed. Hence the saying that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough. Some people mistake this uptick for a recovery, and when it does not materialise, they realise it was just a 'dead cat bounce'.
Posted: 4 March 2005 at 00:00

Wolfgang Grulke RE: Not sure about the 'bounce'

Dead cats don't bounce - they just 'plop'.
Posted: 5 March 2005 at 00:00

Doug Vining Some more comments...

I don't know if Microsoft will die. Surely Intel will plummet before MS? I think MS consider themselves internet players, and you don't seriously suggest the internet will disappear? But I agree that the desktop PC could disappear and be replaced by that 'device which controls all the info and broadcasts we receive' ie the Media Centre. Laptops will ultimately be replaced by phones with flexible screens that unfurl out the side and virtual keyboards.
Posted: 4 March 2005 at 00:00

Wolfgang Grulke RE: Some more comments...

Where does MS make its money from? As far as I know it's profits come from Windows and Office. Only one country appears to make money from MSN. If the PC platform disappears there will be no market for MS's primary revenue/profit streams. What other really profitable businesses do they have? Before fold-out screens we will simply use the screens all around us - in hotel rooms and at home - to create big displays for our mobile phones. There will of course be some fold-out screens.
Posted: 5 March 2005 at 00:00

Chris Fox RE: Some more comments...

Actually, I think the Internet will disappear quite soon. By that I mean that it will become an invisible commodity, much like electricity. It is not far off that already.
Posted: 7 April 2005 at 17:57

Wolfgang Grulke RE: RE: Some more comments...

In a way we are already there - no one ever asks if you actually HAVE an email address anymore - it's just assumed that you do - that's a kind of 'invisibility'.
Posted: 10 April 2005 at 09:09

Chris Fox RE: RE: RE: Some more comments...

Agreed. I think it will be even more true when people start, for example, using Skype handsets on their home wifi networks, and watching live TV over the same connection. Internet connectivity will then really just be something that needs to be there - but you will stop talking about the internet and only talk about the different things you connect to it and do with it.
Posted: 11 April 2005 at 10:56

Gavin Chait Dec 2004 too early?

I can see camera's diving before video cameras. Sure, my new phone acts as a video camera, but that is still a VERY early technology. 2004 too early for that. Camera's certainly, except for semi-professionals such as myself, there is very limited market for stand-alones.

Plus, Microsoft is making inroads into the cell phone industry, they're doing what Nokia can't. They're working with Chinese manufacturers to produce customised phones for people like Orange, etc. Something Nokia still can't do since they are wed to their own branded hardware. Their stuff, as a friend said, is starting to be like Volvo's. Reliable, well engineered, but as stylish as a brick.
Posted: 20 March 2005 at 00:00

Wolfgang Grulke RE: Dec 2004 too early

Video recorders have tanked. This is what ACTUALLY happened in the UK markets in December 2004 - fact NOT fiction - you can't wish it away. Video replaced by DVD, but not by smart phones quite yet as you suggest. There is no new market for video cameras - except for the digital kind. By the way Nokia are working with Chinese manufactures - you should also read 'Microsoft loses the smart phone war' MindBullet.
Posted: 28 March 2005 at 00:00

Doug Vining Microsoft exhibits cell-PC

Microsoft showed a prototype of a cellphone-based computer that could one day find a use as a cheap PC for emerging markets, News.com reports.
http://news.com.com/Microsoft+shows+off+cell+phone-PC+prototype/2100-1042_3-6099471.html?tag=nefd.top
The FonePlus device combines the Windows CE operating system with a phone that can be connected to a TV display and keyboard to create a computer.
This development follows criticism that Microsoft is not being aggressive enough in bringing low-cost PCs to the emerging market.
Posted: 31 July 2006 at 12:26

Doug Vining Still bouncing?

PC sales face 'worst-ever slump' 2009-03-02
Analysts predict that PC sales will experience their worst slump ever in 2009, but the semiconductor industry may be safe.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/technology/7918621.stm
Posted: 2 March 2009 at 20:12

Doug Vining Dead cat bounce

We published this MindBullet in 2005. Today I received this tweet via @shapshak:
"@shapshak: Gartner: In 2013,global PC shipments suffered the worst decline in PC market history, analysts say industry has bottomed out.Down 6.9% in Q4"

Sounds like a dead cat bounce!
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Dead cat bounce") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=bb921b03-d649-4f1f-bfa4-d07bd944ad9d
Posted: 13 January 2014 at 20:41

Doug Vining Sony bails out of PCs

And another PC brand bites the dust, or at least moves to new owners...
A FuturesForum post (titled: "Sony bails out of PCs") refers to this MindBullet. The full FuturesForum post can be read here: http://www.futureworld.org/PublicZone/FuturesForum/BlogDetails.aspx?PostID=d8e658b3-2f03-4498-96e4-16635338dd0c
Posted: 6 February 2014 at 16:03
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