NEWS, COMMENTARY, DEBATE AND ACCESS TO FUTUREWORLD'S COMPLETE KNOWLEDGE BASE
A distributed network of Playstations or iPads, with the right connections, can easily outstrip the largest supercomputer. One has to remember there are millions of them 'available'. But would people choose to build such networks, and if they did, what would they create?On the other hand, a Ponzi scheme very rapidly reaches saturation, and peters out. Both are examples of exponential growth, leading to either super-performance or extinction.The difference is that an effective network creates value for all participants, presumably sustainable value through constant innovation. A pyramid scheme only benefits the few at the top, removing value from the masses at the bottom.In Ray Kurzweil’s view of the future, accelerating returns are endless, and thus marginal cost reduces to zero. But once everything is commoditized to the nth degree, 3D printers are commonplace, and computers do all the thinking, might we not reach saturation? Then all products need to be truly unique – essentially artworks.Both these points of view have profound implications for business, and how to position for the future.
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